This year, China's
grain yield is expected to hit a record high and to achieve the ninth
consecutive annual increase for the first time since half a century ago.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the domestic grain
yield is predicted to increase to 589.57 million tonnes in 2012, up 3.2% over
the previous year. Meanwhile, the import of grain also increases accordingly.
In the first eleventh months of 2012, the import volume of grain in China has
hit 65.89 million tonnes, accounting for around 11% of the nation’s total grain
yield according to official statistics, which means that China’s grain
self-sufficient rate has dropped below 90%, according to CCM’s December
issue of AgriChina
Investor.
For years, China
has attached importance to achieving and maintaining high grain self-sufficient
rate. On 2 July, 2008, the Medium and Long Term Plan for National Grain
Security, which planned to stabilize China's grain self-sufficient rate
above 95%, was passed by the State Council. At the beginning of 2012, the
Ministry of Agriculture also indicated that China should maintain the goal of
grain self-sufficiency.
Li Guoxiang, a researcher of the Rural Development Institute
of the Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences, said that China’s
grain self-sufficient rate has already decreased below the line of 95%, a
target figure set by the government. Coupled with import volume in December, China's
grain self-sufficient rate is predicted to surely drop below 90% in 2012.
However, the large import volume of grain is to stabilize the price of
agricultural produces, which will not last for a long time, and China's
grain supply is still very adequate.
China is already the world's
largest importer of soybean. With the decreasing planting area of soybean, the
import volume of soybean is estimated to increase to 57.5 million tonnes in
2012 from 52.6 million tonnes in 2011, according to the National Grain and Oil Information
Center. Besides, China
has become a net importer of wheat, rice and corn since 2011. Experts believe
that the current increasing market share of imported grain in China will make China's grain encounter some
important changes and challenges.
First, since the area of China's arable land has already
decreased to 120 million ha. (1,800 million mu), China’s grain is difficult to
maintain complete self-sufficiency. With the acceleration of urbanization, the
arable land is inevitably decreasing, and enlarging grain import volume will
also be inevitable.
Second, since the grain import is inevitable, China
should pay close attention to the trends and changes in the overseas markets.
In the future, China
should actively expand agricultural investment in overseas markets, including
renting overseas land to farming, taking shares of foreign agricultural
companies and agricultural trading companies, in a bid to increase the
influence in the field of grain production and trading.
Third, in domestic market, it is urgent for China's agricultural industry to upgrade and China
should introduce more investments into the agricultural industry. In addition, China
should adjust macroeconomic policies and industrial policies to better serve
grain production. For years, China
has issued many preferential policies on supporting agricultural industry,
which should continue in the future.
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