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Tranalysis:
Guangzhou: In the past 20 months, the pig price in China fluctuated greatly. In
March 2015-May 2016, the average sales price of live pig increased to RMB21/kg
in May 2016 from less than RMB12/kg in March 2015. However, in June – Oct.
2016, the price dropped back to the level in Dec. 2015, hitting a historical
low in the past ten months.
The
reasons behind the huge decline of pig price from June in 2016 were quite
obvious. The supply and demand decided the price. This round of pig price
decline was mainly caused by the weak demand of pig and the increase on pig
supply.
After
the Dragon-boat festival in China, with the higher temperature, the pig
industry entered its slack season, which caused the weak demand of pig. On the
contrary, the seasonal survival rate of pig after March and April helped
improve the supply of pig.
In
addition, with the pigs ready to sell after raising them for half a year in H1
2016, the supply of pigs increased rapidly. And the live-pig slaughtering
enterprises took the chance to cut the pig price.
In
addition, the changes of cost also affected on the falling pig price,
especially the depressing corn market, which could further lower the pig price.
Moreover,
the import volume of pork increased greatly after June 2016, which had further
impacted on the China pig market.
Besides
all the said reasons, the import pork was the major reason to cause the low
price of pig. In Jan. – August 2016, the import volume of pork reached to
113.78 million tonnes, up 7.78 million tonnes than that in last year.
Calculated based on that ever live pig weighs 110kg, China imported 16 million
live pigs, accounting for 15% of the total number of pigs in China.
Currently,
China has opened 50 ports for pig import to increase the import volume. It is
predicted that China would import over 2 million tonnes of pork in 2016 and
most of the imported pork comes from the US.
The
average cost for the US pork is only one third of that of China pork. Even if
with taxes and transportation expense, the pork in the USA is still cheaper
than that in China.
Thus,
it is predicted that the pig price would keep fluctuating and falling.
About Tranalysis:
Tranalysis
is an intelligence and analysis provider on import/export data covering
agriculture, chemicals and life science industries in China. Tranalysis,
founded in 2001, provides users not only large amount of import/export data in
China, but also analysis to help monitor the market trends. Our clients include
Monsanto, BASF, Syngenta, SinoChem and etc.
For
more information about Tranalysis, please visit Tranalysis or
get in touch with us directly by emailing mailto:econtact@tranalysis.com or
calling +86-20-37616606.
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