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Tranalysis: Import and export volume and price of grain fall in China in H1 2016


Tranalysis Guangzhou: affected by the falling price of international agricultural products, the trading value of agriculture products was USD87.19 billion in H1 2016, down 3.1% YoY. Specifically, the import value was USD53.49 billion, down 6.5% YoY; and the export volume was USD33.9 billion, up 2.8% YoY. 

 

The annually growth of agriculture product in trading value was 16.1% in China in 2001-2014. It was the first time in 2015 that the growth went down 4.6% and that in H1 2016 was down 3.1% further.

 

Source: pixabay

 

In Jan. – June 2016, the Food Price Index of United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UNFAO) narrowed down month by month on a year-on-year basis, from 17.1% to 1%, the lowest figure since 2010. Regarding to specific products, the import volumes of grain, edible oilseeds and vegetable oil, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, meat and milk will keep increase or remain high.

 

It is predicted that bulk agriculture products will face high press from the imported products in H2 2016. In H1 2016, the export volume of agriculture products increased slightly, with the export volume to ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) up 3.4%; that to Japan, down 3.7%; that to Hong Kong China, up 20%; that to EU (European Union), down 1.5% and that to the US, down 3.8%.


Import and export value of agriculture products in China, 2010-2016, Unit: USD100 million; %


 

Export value

YoY change

Import value

YoY change

Import and export value

YoY change

2010

493.9

24.8

725.7

37.7

1219.6

32.2

2011

607.4

23

948.9

30.8

1556.3

27.6

2012

631.9

4

1124.4

18.5

1756.2

12.8

2013

678.4

7.4

1189

5.8

1867.5

6.3

2014

719.6

6.1

1225.4

3.1

1945

4.2

2015

706.8

-1.8

1168.8

-4.6

1875

-3.6

Jan. – June 2015

329.8

-2.3

572.1

-10.4

901.9

-7.6

Jan. – June 2016

339

2.8

534.9

-6.5

837.9

-3.1


Sourced from China Customs and Analyzed by Tranalysis


 According to China Customs, in H1 2016, China imported 13.02 million tonnes of grain and grain flour, 3.27 million tonnes less, down 20% YoY. Though the import volume of grain went down overall, the total import volume of the three staple foods - wheat, rice and corn reached 67.01 million tonnes in H1 2016, up 22%. Specifically, the import volume of wheat was 1.79 million tonnes, up 26.6% YoY; that of rice was 2.006 million tonnes, up 40.4% YoY; and that of corn was 2.905 million tonnes, up 9.6% YoY.


Analyzing from the import origins, wheat was mainly imported from Australia (45.3%), Canada (27.5%), the US (14.2%) and Kazakhstan (12.5%). Rice was mainly imported from Vietnam (42.7%), Thailand (27.0%) and Pakistan (25.1%). And barley, sorghum and DDGS were mainly imported from the USA (68.6%) and Australia (22.2%).

 

The lower prices of the imported products are why the three staple foods have a large amount of import volume. In H1 2016, the average prices after import tax (within import quota in China) of wheat, rice and corn were USD265.7/t, USD494.8/t and USD299.6/t, respectively, which were USD104.9/t, USD115.5/t and USD87.9/t lower than the prices exported from Guangzhou ports.


In July 2017, the import volume and price of major agriculture products fell overall. The import volume of grain and grain flour was 1.3 million tonnes, 570,000 tonnes less, down 30.5% YoY. And the accumulative imported grain and grain flour was 14.33 million tonnes in Jan. – July 2016, down 29.9% YoY. It is predicted that the import volume of the agriculture products overall would keep falling.



About Tranalysis:


Tranalysis is an intelligence and analysis provider on import/export data covering agriculture, chemicals and life science industries in China. Tranalysis, founded in 2001, provides users not only large amount of import/export data in China, but also analysis to help monitor the market trends. Our clients include Monsanto, BASF, Syngenta, SinoChem and etc.


For more information about Tranalysis, please visit Tranalysis or get in touch with us directly by emailing econtact@tranalysis.com or calling +86-20-37616606.


 


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